Wednesday, April 27, 2011

On the Saudi 'offer' to Assad (the one he rejected)

"... While few expected the revolt against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak early this year to dramatically shift his country's generally pro-Western policies, Syria maintains a wider range of contacts with countries that include Iran and Russia. For decades, it has been a key player in volatile Lebanon. It has its own unresolved dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights, but is also important to Israel and the United States because of its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, a relationship that both American and Israeli officials have encouraged Assad to break.
Iran has been chalking up diplomatic victories as pro-U.S. Arab regimes such as Mubarak's have either fallen or been challenged by democratic movements this year. But now that trouble has come to Syria, Tehran has suddenly cooled to the Arab Spring. "We are worried about the resistance against Israel," said Asad Zarei, a pro-government political analyst in Tehran. "If the changes in Syria happen in a way that the resistance is undermined, we are very worried."
Some Iranians appear to be realizing that the government's official position is untenable, and are calling on Damascus to reform. "The Syrian regime should heed the demands of people in Syria and manage the current crisis in the country," former Iranian Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki was quoted as telling students Tuesday...
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was harshly critical of Mubarak, has long been a friend of Assad. He told a news conference Tuesday that Turkey was displeased by events in Syria. "During my conversation with Assad, I have conveyed our concern to him,"...
Lebanon's political factions are carefully watching events unfold in their influential neighbor,... Countries may also see an opportunity in Damascus' weakness. Neighboring Jordan recently decided to demand renegotiation of a water-sharing agreement from a river that traverses both nations... Saudi Arabia may be considering using its diplomatic and political influence to offer Assad a way out of his predicament, but for a price: breaking his alliance with Iran, (see Nicholas Nassif, in Al Akhbar)... One offer might be help slowing the flow of information feeding the revolt on the streets of Syria. The UAE hosts Saudi-owned Al Arabiya, one of two Arabic-language channels whose reporting has been inflaming passions across Syria, and owns the Thuraya satellite phone network used by pro-democracy activists to circumvent the secret police..."

2 comments:

William deB. Mills said...

If Egypt moves away from Israel and manages to push the Palestinian factions together (say, by offering them a good border arrangement via Rafah) but simultaneously Iran's anti-Israeli front is weakened by changes in Syria, would that open up enough political space for Israel to develop a less intransigent policy toward the Palestinians?

Anonymous said...

Forget it Bill...Israel's ZIOCONS want top steal more land in the West Bank, the Golan, South Lebanon, Jordan and Saudi Arabia if they can...They don't want any Peace, they want piece by piece....